A momentary truce in the Spanish market

Holy Week has brought a small truce to the Spanish pig price, which had been increasing consecutively since February 6. Everything seems to indicate that not even lost slaughter days in three consecutive weeks will prevent the increase; if anything, these holidays will have only served to slow it down.

Throughout Europe, several prices stabilized during Holy Week. Germany saw a 5-cent increase in carcasses on Wednesday the 23rd (remember that its price is still much cheaper than Spain's). How its Central European neighbors will behave remains to be seen.

The situation in the Spanish market remains unbalanced; there are not enough pigs to sustain all slaughterhouses' activity. Yesterday's result in Spain's reference market indicates that -for now - the Spanish price has stabilized in a pause for breath.

Officially, the Spanish swine inventory reported that in November 2024, there were 150,000 fewer sows in production than a year earlier. We do not know where the error may lie, but all front-line operators we consulted indicated their profound surprise at this information. We believe that a nasty mistake has been made in preparing this information and that this data is not real. Finishing pigs in Spain has been and is a profitable business, and we do not believe that anyone is in favor of reducing their sow numbers. The persistent existence of PRRS does not justify this alleged decrease either. We will see if there is a rectification.

We face spring expectantly. The traditional consumption of barbecue products is expected (a fact favoring the market). Italy has awakened from a long lethargy and shows much more interest in buying (another fact favoring the market).

Trump's erratic tariff policy has punished the price of the U.S. dollar.

This is detrimental to all European countries' exports (the Euro becomes more expensive on the world market) and favors those of all countries with dollarized economies (the United States, Canada, Brazil, etc.).

We cannot venture to forecast the impact of Trump's tariffs on global pork trade. The main reason is that nothing has been decided yet, and anything could happen.

To provide a good overview of U.S. exports, it is best to detail them in the table below:

Source: USDA

These quantities represent 98.40% of the total 3.03 million tons exported.

If any of the major U.S. customers impose tariffs on their pork in response to Trump's tariffs, U.S. producers will have to decide whether to offset that charge with discounts on the export price or else forgo that particular market. A lose-lose situation for everyone. It is very venturesome to forecast anything. Everything is very confusing. Everything about it is extraordinarily uncertain.

Spain's reality, as leaders of the EU pig industry, is as follows:

• Spain's share of European pig production is increasing year after year. This will continue to be the case.
• The percentage of Spanish exports to third countries is less than 45% of the total (a few years ago we reached 55%). Exports to these non-EU destinations will continue to fall as a percentage. Nothing radical, but a decrease.
• Spanish exports to EU destinations continue to progress and will continue to do so.
• Spanish producers' economics have been good or very good in recent years. Everything indicates that this will continue to be the case.
• PRRS is resilient and continues to decimate farms. Its incidence varies greatly from region to region.
• Slaughterhouses are going through difficult times. It does not seem this will change in the short or medium term (the market enforces its law without mercy).
• The market abounds with rumors of all kinds. Changes of ownership in important livestock companies. Takeovers. Acquisitions... We will wait for definite news to report it.

We will end today with a quote from the American writer John Verdon: “Action is the best antidote to anxiety and information the only remedy to combat uncertainty."

Guillem Burset