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A quiet January for Poland - February with hopes

Are prices stabilizing in Poland? How do Polish prices currently compare to other countries?

The Polish market in January was calm and stagnant. Only at the end of the month did we see some price decreases, however, information from the market indicated (and rightly so) that this trend was temporary. At the time of writing (February 8), the price had risen considerably, and currently, prices in Poland are hovering around PLN 9 per kg in class E. Comparing this price to what we have to pay for feed components, it can be said that the cost-profit relationship is favorable for farrow-to-finish systems. It is worse for grow/finish systems that purchase their piglets, where the current price of young animals accounts for the large majority of costs. In January, the average price of a domestic piglet weighing 20-30kg was about PLN 350 per head, but we must remember that most animals for fattening are imported, so the price of transportation must be added to the price of the animal, which reaches up to PLN 50-100 more per head.

As for what I expect on the domestic market, by the end of the month I predict price stabilization after the last increase. Any changes in price lists will be minor, within 10-15 cents per kg. I don't think the changes will be larger in Poland or the pan-European market. The reason is global prices. Let me just remind you that in Brazil, pigs are currently purchased at about PLN 5.50/kg live weight, while in the US they are PLN 5.40! Comparing this with the rate in Poland (PLN 9 in class E, i.e. PLN 7 per kg live weight), this is at least PLN 1.50 less! This is a downright chasm. Yes, we in Poland, we have limited exports to third countries, however, our rates are comparable to those of EU countries that can freely trade with the world. This means that the Americas can offer goods more than 20% cheaper! What saves European pork is the availability of the commodity, however, buyers are turning to Europe more and more often only to supplement their purchases, and not as a main import destination. This situation is not without significance for Poland itself.

Establishments in the EU are increasingly beginning to treat Poland as a target for the expansion of their goods, and this puts the domestic meat industry on defense against foreign meat. The situation is made all the more difficult by the fact that Polish companies do not have the opportunity to seek additional income from trade with third countries. This problem manifests itself, for example, by reducing farmers' rates so that they can compete on price with imports. Therefore, the first point of any attempt to create a strategy in our country is to make the fight against ASF more effective. Many people believe that this fight is impossible to win and that we must learn to live with this virus... but if we approach it this way, we will never be able to fight this disease (self-fulfilling prophecy). The fact is that this fight is extremely difficult because it involves not only the virus itself, but also the main vector of this disease, the wild boar, and this topic is extremely sensitive, especially for animal rights activists who try to thwart all kinds of sanitary shooting plans aimed at depopulating these animals so that the virus has less opportunity for transmission in the environment. Of course, biosecurity on pig farms is also important here, however, until we get rid of ASF from the wild, we will not be able to consider our country free of this disease.