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So far in June, the Spanish price has kept on rising: small increases that show the strength due to the lack of supply and that are limited due to the standstill in meat prices.
We are almost reaching the maximum possible price, but we know nothing about the impossible (other years, our price has been, occasionally, €0.22 above the German price, and this year we are at par). The facts are stubborn, and the almost absolute absence of the exports to China prevents the rise in the butchering. Hams and shoulders must remain in Europe, and in July, half Europe is on holidays…).
Very probably, the Spanish price will remain above €1.40/kg liveweight until late July, supported by the weakness of the supply and helped by the weather. Heat reduces the pigs’ appetite, and thus their growth.
Since early this year and until today, the average price exceeds €1.26/kg. Not bad, not bad at all. It seems very probable that by late 2017, we will move within an average of €1.24-1.26. A very good year, regardless of the final result.
2017 will mark the consolidation of Spain as a great pork exporter. We hope, once again, to export more than 50% of our production (we reached this landmark in 2016 for the first time). This factor forces us to monitor like never before what happens outside of our borders, making us more dependent on the different markets in the world. Our competitiveness must be preserved under penalty of especially complex difficulties. We will preserve it if our price fluctuates or keeps around the price of other European powers, but not above.
The heatwave in June will cause delays in the growth, and we know that in July there are no signs of the temperatures diminishing. It is probable that the markets in the north of Europe (Germany, The Netherlands, Denmark) show a downward trend in July due to the absence of domestic consumption. The Spanish scenario is one of tension: the abattoirs will not be able to pass on anything on pork (on the contrary, some cuts show weakness), and the stockbreeder will explain that they have few pigs to sell. China has a great influence on Europe’s exporting configuration, and its repeated absence does not mean the finding of substitute markets.
From the collection of Spanish proverbs: “An hour of happiness makes up for ten bad days.”
Guillem Burset
