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March has been an upward month in all Europe. Fifteen days ago, in Germany, prices rose by + €0.13 (tremendous!), but underwent a correction (- €0.05) the following week. Repetition of prices in this week's session (28th March). The rest of the markets (without exception) follow the trail of the rise.
Russia practices dilettantism with the EU. The Russian authorities demand a regionalisation not considered up to now, and wishes to reach individual agreements with member states. Everything shows that we will have to wait several weeks to see European meat entering Russia.
In America, porcine epidemic diarrhoea spreads without control. In US and Mexico it affects an important part of the pig population. It has also entered Canada and some South American countries. Apparently realistic analysis mention a possible reduction of pigs by 15-20%.
In the globalized world that we live in this piece of news has reached the whole of the world, US's preferential client countries are looking for an alternative urgently, and the whole of the world market is disturbed.
In this precise moment we see that the European market is firm, even with the absence of Russia (an hypothetical show for the gallery: if Russia bought in the EU, where would we be?); we are entering spring and the consumption of barbecued meat is foreseen as high, as always.
With all the operators convinced that the minimum prices of this year have been left behind, the heart of the matter lies in knowing where can we get to. As we have said in some old reports, it is a real pity that in our sector the happiness of some must be based on the tears of others…
The future for the European pig producers seems clear and the heart of the matter lies in knowing how the different markets will reposition themselves. It seems undeniable that pig meat will sell well and that its price will rise in summer.
The effects of the piglets' mortality will not be noticed in the American slaughters until June/July. We will have to see the height of the wave when it strikes us, although we know that, as always, Germany will lead us.
François de la Rochefoucauld once said: “We will never be so unhappy as we think nor so happy as we expect.”
Guillem Burset
