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March has gone by with prospects for price repetition. All the pigs offered for sale are slaughtered and nobody runs after the non-available pigs. The carcass weights recede, although their averages are still at record levels.
It looks like as the worst has gone by. The quick and consistent recovery in February seems irreversible, and after Easter we should see exactly what has been happening year after year: firmness and a resolute pace until June. The current price already exceeds the cost price and the production sector can take a breath.
The recent and gone-by situation with prices below cost has generated general unrest and nervousness in all Europe. In France, Spanish pork lorries have been vandalised (with no actions by the authorities), and this seems unacceptable to us.
The Danish cooperatives Tican and Danish Crown have approved, by a large majority of their partners, their merger. The question is now in the hands of the European competition authorities that must approve (or not) this merger. If it is confirmed, the pig slaughtering and processing in Denmark would almost be monopolised. We must interpret this movement as a search for the optimisation of the Danish industry. Denmark is the country with the most advanced know-how in terms of pig slaughtering and pork processing, and it is the role model in many aspects.
The pork private storage operation moves forward steadily and (surprise!) Spain leads its ranking, with Catalonia clearly at the head.
The European stocks are still very important and the absence of the Russian market cannot be satisfactorily compensated for. The euro is still weak, and its weakness is of great help for the European exports to third countries.
We expect April to proceed without shocks and that May is good for the keeping and/or improvement of the current prices. Hope seems to grow, and all seems to tell that 2015 will be an acceptable year for production.
From the Spanish collection of proverbs: “By following the thread you will reach the ball of wool.”
