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As in previous years, we asked our users what they thought the average pig price would be in 2021. During the month of February, a total of 799 users from 72 countries answered this question.
We are still in a year of uncertainty, with the COVID-19 pandemic still very present wolrdwide along with the restrictions it brings, the outbreak of ASF in Germany in September last year, and its consequences on European meat trade dynamics, as well as ASF's persistence in China. Also playing an important role are prices of raw materials, which have been rising for weeks and are expected to continue to do so... It does not seem easy, therefore, to predict what will happen to pig prices in 2021.
The following graph shows the results for the countries from which we received the most responses. The range of expected price predictions is shown for each one, and the minimum, maximum and median values are specified, as well as the average price for 2019 and 2020 for comparative purposes.
Figure 1. Average price in 2021: Comparison between 333 users' predictions (responses collected between January 25 and February 25, 2021) and the actual average price for 2019 and 2020. For each country, the range of responses is shown by the blue bar, where the maximum, minimum, and median values are shown. The actual average prices in 2019 and 2020 are indicated with green dots. The number of data analyzed is shown in parentheses.
Looking at the responses of our users, two clear trends can be observed: users from European countries showed their skepticism, in the vast majority of cases predicting prices below the average prices of 2020 and 2019 recorded in the 333 price system; and users from the Americas were much more optimistic, predicting prices higher than those of the two previous years- markedly so in some countries where even the references fall below the range of predictions. It must be said that in light of the evolution of prices so far this year, they seem to be on the right track (Figure 2). In Europe, Russia is the exception, with an expected price above the reference points, as this country has good growth and export prospects.
ASF and China continue to closely affect the markets; the news of possible new increase in outbreaks of the disease in China together with an increase in pork consumption are further encouraging imports by China, which has already seen record import values for months. On the other hand, while waiting for the current implementation of expert meetings between China and Germany to resume pork trade between the two countries to bear fruit, the opening of some third countries to German pork gives some respite to the European domestic market. In Russia, cases continue to be confirmed, but the disease is being concentrated in family farms, while in large farms belonging to major companies in the industry, biosecurity levels have allowed the number of outbreaks to be reduced.
Figure 2. Evolution of the pig price (blue) by year for different countries. The thick line represents the price in 2021.
The following image (Figure 3) shows the evolution of the average price and the standard deviation over the last few years, as well as the average price for 2021 according to our users' predictions. We can see how in most cases these are within the range of the users' responses, except in the case of Mexico and Argentina, which again have higher forecasts, as was the case in the predictions for the average price in 2020. (Results of the 333 poll on the average pig price in 2020: Many countries have great expectations).
Figure 3. Evolution of average price and standard deviation by year and country (blue). The predicted (median) price in 2021 obtained by the 333 survey is shown in pink.
As we mentioned before, it is not easy to make predictions amidst so much uncertainty (China, ASF, COVID-19...) so we will see you at the beginning of next year when we know the 2021 average and to what extent the participants were right. Thank you to those who responded to the survey for your participation!
333 Staff.
