0
In February 2023, we launched the Pig333 annual price survey which asked our users the following question: What do you think the pig price will be in your country in 2023? We received 734 answers from different countries. Now that we know what the actual average price was in 2023, we can compare users’ forecasts with what really happened.
Graph 1 compares the forecasts with the actual average of the quotations for the year 2023 for each of the markets analyzed and figure 1 shows the same information together with the evolution of the average pig price over the last years
We begin by congratulating the Pig333 users who participated in the consultation for their predictive skills, as their degree of accuracy was remarkable. The markets with the best predictions were Germany, with a difference of just 0.01€, Vietnam with a difference of 1141 VND and Spain with a difference of 0.07€ compared to the actual average price in 2023.
While user forecasts for European markets were very optimistic, they came very close to reality. As clearly shown in figure 1, all European forecasts for 2023 were well above 2022 prices, which had already been record high. Even so, reality exceeded expectations in 4 of the 6 countries analyzed, Spain, Germany, Italy and Poland, and in 2023 European markets saw increases of between 22 and 26%, leaving the historical records of 2022 far behind.
Users in Latin America also made forecasts above 2022 prices. In this case, expectations were not met and 2023 prices were below the expected, except in Argentina, a market with a very particular dynamic.
By contrast, the Asian countries analyzed, China and Vietnam, made downward forecasts, which is what was realized.
So... what does 2024 have in store for us? Once again, we would like to know your opinion. Click on the link to give us your input: What do you think the pig price will be in your country in 2024?
333 Staff
