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Prospects for the pork production and global market after Covid-19 (5:50)
What are the New Dynamics of Change – In a pandemic-saturated world? (9:15)
Where is pork produced, and is it likely to change? (9:28)
Which factors are driving pork production investment? (10:25)
Global pork consumption (13:10)
“Even if there is an active import-export market, pigs are largely produced were they are consumed”
Factors driving pork consumption (14:00)
Structural Change Model for Commodities (Supply) (19:05)
(22:45) “We are going to see innovative ideas to try to spread the risk, and to reduce the production risk associated with these calamities. The production phase has the greatest investment of any phase in the chain but also shoulders the greatest risk because of its biological and inflexible production process.”
Production Sector evolution driven by multiple Black swan events (23:22)
“Packers must have a stake in production losses from overproduction (increased integration)”
“Where people simply produce hogs and hope they can sell them, at some point in the future is going to be disappearing”
“Employees are the Achilles heel in agricultural production and processing”
“US overproduction is still not conceded in all quarters. Many believe things will return to “normal” eventually and go on as before. Production must decrease by 2-5% to restore sustainable profitability”
(31:40) “Looking at US production, in recent years you see the lines rising. In the first weeks of 2020 they were 5 to 6% above the previous year. Tremendous numbers of pigs were already periodically challenging the existing slaughter capacity even before COVID”
Production Evolution (Spain) 35:52
“Spain faces many of the same dangers as the US. It can be lulled into a false sense of security by past years' prices due to exports to China. A large overproduction risk looms with subsequent crashing prices”
Vertical integration in the pork industry (40:05)
“In the US, the production sector has reached into integrated meat processing and slaughter operations in order to overcome the information barrier that occurs between the finishing phase of the live animals and the slaughtering operation”
Hardening Full Chain from Production to Consumer through Large Increases in Flexibility (41:27)
“There is going to be a lot of rethinking how food is delivered in a more flexible way to adjust to changes.”
“Now, there is very little price difference between meat substitutes and regular meat. We have to face the fact that the millennial generation is going to have a very different demand than baby boomers”
China dominates the future of global pork for next several years (45:28)
“Ongoing supply issues, layered challenges to domestic demand, novel human and pig virus generation, global political investment and aspirations”
Repopulation model: Exploring the timing and success of repopulation (49:25)
Questions from the audience
(58:00) You speak about an expected reduction in the number of workers in the industry. Do you think this reduction will also happen in those areas of the world where the cost of paying those workers is not as high as in Europe and the USA?
(1:01:15) In your opinion, who will be the main and strongest meat producer in Europe?
(1:04:20) How many years will China need to regain its 2018 production level?
(01:11:15) How severe is industry consolidation going to be in the US?
(01:14:00) In the US, are there people against animal production? Could this have an impact on the market?
(01:18:00) How do you think pork consumption will evolve in the future?
(01:20:30) If Russia is able to export to China, would it be a strong competitor?
