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As in previous years, we asked our users what they thought the average pig price will be in 2022. From February 23 to March 23, a total of 831 users from 62 different countries answered the question: What do you think the average pig price at slaughter will be in your country in 2022?
Last year we talked about a year full of uncertainties, mainly caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the restrictions that it caused and is still causing at the international level. This year is even more uncertain and it is very difficult to foresee or reliably predict what will happen with pig prices. Unfortunately, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the current war situation create serious volatility in the market and a sharp rise in the prices of raw materials. It should be noted that Ukraine is a major exporter, especially of corn, barley, wheat, and oilseeds. In addition to the raw materials market for feed production, the fertilizer and energy markets have also been affected at a global level.
The following graph shows the results of the survey from the countries with the most responses. For each country, the range and median of the expected price are shown in addition to the actual average prices in 2020 and 2021.
Figure 1. Average price in 2022: Comparison between 333 users' predictions (collected between February 23 and March 23, 2022) and the actual average price in 2020 and 2021. For each country, the range of responses is shown by the blue bar, where the maximum, minimum, and median values are represented. The actual average price in 2020 and 2021 is indicated by gray dots. The number of data analyzed for each country is shown in parentheses.
Looking at the predictions made by our users, in most of the European countries analyzed the average pig price at slaughter is expected to be very similar to that of previous years. In some European countries (France, Italy, Romania, and Belgium) a higher price than the previous year is predicted.
The trend is different for the countries in the Americas. Prices are more disparate if we compare them with previous years or even with other countries in the same continent. Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico expect higher prices than in previous years (2020 and 2021), unlike Brazil, where prices are expected to remain unchanged compared to last year, and Chile, which expects the pig price to decrease compared to previous years. In the specific case of Argentina, the forecasts, influenced by inflation in the country, are always higher than the actual prices of the previous year.
Looking at China, the pig price this year is predicted to be significantly much lower, largely due to the recovery of production after the severe impact of ASF on the country.
Many thanks to all the 333 users who responded to this survey.
