How close were your predictions for pig prices in 2021? We put 333 users to the test

In February last year, we launched a survey to ask you, the users of 333, what you thought the average pig price would be in your respective countries. Now that we know the actual average prices for 2021, let's take a look at which users were most accurate in their predictions.

Users in most European countries expected prices to be lower compared to previous years, which is unsurprising considering that the last two years have been filled with uncertainties from factors negatively affecting the industry including COVID-19 and ASF, which is still active in the wild boar population in Germany and has recently appeared in wild boars in northern Italy, not to mention the consequences the disease has had on the pork trade in these countries. Since pork cannot be exported, it must be reabsorbed in some way by the European market. Add to the mix the significant decrease in Chinese pork imports (-15%) and the task of trying to accurately estimate the price is almost impossible.

Users in Spain closely predicted the actual pig price. At the time of the survey (February 2021) Spanish prices began to rebound, encouraged by pork exports to China that were double the volume sent in the same period of the previous year. Prices went from €1.10/kg in January to a record seasonal price of €1.55/kg in June, at which time prices began to fall. Exports to China also fell, and the year ended with the lowest seasonal price seen in the last 5 years, standing at €1.02/kg in December.

In Germany, users were optimistic and predicted a price slightly above the actual price. However, ASF continued to be very active in wild boar, with the first case of the disease seen in domestic pigs in July, meaning the embargo on exports to third countries continued. The persistence of COVID-19 was also a factor, leading to decreases in the slaughter of pigs due to labor shortages and also meant a decrease in domestic demand, resulting in a continued decline in prices which began in June, reaching a seasonal low in the autumn. The market is so collapsed that, despite the continued decline in the pig inventory, prices remained low.

The predicted price from users in Brazil was slightly high, probably influenced by the progressive price increase seen since June of 2020. Prices peaked in November, reaching values above BRL 9/kg, which brought some optimism to the sector. However, after a drop in December to BRL 6.7/kg, prices oscillated throughout the year between BRL 6 and 8/kg, putting the actual average price for 2021 at BRL 6.98/kg.

There was a significant difference between the price predicted by our users in the United States and the actual average price in the U.S, which ended up being much higher than they expected, likely due in part to a decrease in the pig inventory and the number of animals slaughtered. In China, the real price was also well below the predicted price, but for reasons completely opposite of the U.S. Chinese prices plummeted starting in January and by the end of they year they were almost halved. In China, slaughterings increased by 27% compared to 2020, according to data from the Chinese authorities.

The predictions from Mexico seemed very optimistic at the time the survey was conducted; users expected prices would be above the average price for 2020. However, their predictions ended up being very close to the actual price. It should be noted that starting in March 2021, prices began to rise and in June the highest value seen in the last 6 years was reached. Part of this increase was due to an inflation increase of over 7%, the highest in 20 years.

The following graphs show the evolution of the average annual prices since 2013 as well as the average price that our users predicted for 2021.

So... what will pig prices be like in 2022? We invite you to participate in this year's economic poll by sending us your prediction. Click here: What do you think the average pig price will be in your country in 2022? We'd love to hear your thoughts.

333 Staff