A very uncertain future awaits
Guillem Burset analyzes the current situation of the Spanish swine industry in the European and world market and gives us clues about what may happen in 2023.
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06-Jul-2022oatlands1Ride the storm, everything tastes better with bacon
At last, the precarious balance is undone!
After several weeks of stable prices in Spain due to the fight between slaughterers and producers, the Spanish pig price finally went up. Guillem Burset forecasts what will happen now.
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31-May-2022professional_sathanks for sharing!
New scenario
Guillem Burset analyzes the current situation in the European swine market, which is entering uncharted territory: skyrocketing prices, exports threatened, prices of raw materials and energy going through the roof, a lack of pigs...
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Explosive market. Force Majeure.
An early release of the economic commentary by Guillem Burset gives us the keys to understanding where the European meat industry is at this moment in time.
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We are finally on our way out of this hell!
February comes to an end with the pig price rising. At the moment there are not enough pigs in Spain to keep up with the record pace of slaughter seen in January.
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EU markets: At last, in the distance... the light at the end of the tunnel!
Burset suggests a possible way out of the current situation, with Spanish prices at 1.30 or even 1.40 €/kg live. Want to know when this is coming?
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28-Jan-2022info_283I said three years ago that the E.U Pig numbers needed to drop by 20%. What a shame that this has to happen by way of farmers going bust. The reduction should have taken place across the whole sector and could have been managed by all stakeholders in the business coming together. The retail sector have been awash with product, taking huge margins and telling farmers how to produce the product. A real scarcity of Q.A. product is badly needed in the marketplace to restore some sanity.
Taking stock of an atypical year for the Spanish swine industry
A year unlike any other is coming to an end. Our analyst Guillem Burset takes a look and makes some forecasts for 2022.
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The Spanish meat industry on strike?
A strike of this magnitude would sink the pig price to historic lows.
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29-Nov-2021hjwang1995Great article! only one point I am not so sure is about the Chinese market. It is true that the pig price was increasing in the last few week, but I think that was a temporary recover drived by unsustainble factors. In short terms of six momth, I think the Chinese market will still go down, the live pig stock is still at historical high point anyway. As a importer in China, my strategy is still to wait.
From heaven to hell
At a time when everything seems to be going against us, there remains the hope that the cost of production in China is much higher than in Spain...
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06-May-2022tpw429Guillem Burset great article! I was interested in the comment you made about pig producers losing money raising pigs. Is this something you calculated for the current time, or is there a widely available website that publishes estimated hogs to raise pigs for Europe?
Serious crisis in Central Europe - peering into the ground
Guillem Burset predicts when the Spanish pig price will bottom out, and even dares to give us a number!
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What has made the Spanish swine industry so successful?
Spain's production has grown 90% in 32 years, from slaughtering 29 million head of pigs in 1989 to slaughtering more than 56 million in 2021. Explosive growth no matter how you look at it.
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01-Oct-2021andrew-atkinAn incredible success story. Can it be sustained given the growing pressure of environmental restrictions? Is there even enough water in Spain to support the current size of the pig herd?
Inevitable tsunami: Slaughter and process at a loss? No, thanks.
September will show in all its harshness the precariousness of the present moment: pigs will arrive for slaughter in droves and it remains to be seen whether slaughterhouses will be willing to process those pigs whose pork they cannot sell.
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03-Sep-2021luc-verbekehow many drop in Europe has to be in production to have a normal market?
Cascading declines in search of ground. European balances
Virtually absent pork exports to China and poor demand in the EU lead to a 17% drop in Spanish price in 7 weeks, and it will keep dropping.
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10-Sep-2021Marcelo LangThank you for the insightful analysis of EU pork market.
The party's over: Plummeting declines announced
For the first time in 20 years, Spanish prices fell in June. We are in an extremely exceptional situation that must be corrected as soon as possible.
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A monument to the pig price. China is absent!
The pig price in Spain is the most expensive in Europe and Burset predicts that it is very close to the upper limit. China is decreasing imports, buying at cheaper prices, and therefore, is absent in the Spanish market.
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Insurmountable dichotomy: Strength in live pigs, weakness in pork
Pig market: Unbridled in Spain, unsettled in Europe, and with question marks in China. Pork market: rock bottom in Europe.
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04-May-2021ewjThe price of pork and live hogs in China can be modulated by opening and closing the "Import window" for imported pork. They euphemistically call imports of pork "Release of frozen pork from reserve supply" to modulate the consumer pork price. It's like the flapper valve in the throttle on a motor. If you cranked it wide open, the Chinese market would suck pork out of the rest of the world at a vacuum at the rate of transport until the local pig industry in China was virtually destroyed, because with their inefficient management, high disease pressure, and high ingredient costs, they do require trade protection to survive.
