Are abattoirs the ugly duckling? – Forecasts for 2019
The cornerstone of the Spanish pig sector is the extreme efficiency of its abattoirs and cutting rooms.
The cornerstone of the Spanish pig sector is the extreme efficiency of its abattoirs and cutting rooms.
Ending the year with a price similar to that of the cost price and with a more than significant growth in production can only be considered as excellent.
The almost mimetic similarity between the Spanish price curve in 2015 and 2018 ends here and now. We think that it is completely impossible that the decrease in price reaches €0.95, like then.
The appearance of ASF in Belgium has entailed a real blow for the EU pig sector.
Right now it all depends on the evolution of the situation in China.
In Iberia, pig prices have reached this year’s peak. Now, prices can only drop… The evolution of prices is very similar to that in 2015.
Which of the two views is more appropriate for understanding the ins and outs of the global pig market?
Every week a new price is set that reflects a momentary and unstable but necessary and essential balance.
Europe has a surplus and needs to export. The USA has increased its production and needs to export. The Russian market is closed for Brazil, and Brazil needs to export…
Let’s hope that spring makes consumption grow. The foreign markets hesitate, and it will not be easy to sell the European surpluses.
The structural deficit of pigs in Germany and the latent ASF threat have caused an important increase in prices that has dragged all the European markets.
The threat of ASF in Germany causes that nobody wants to keep greats stocks because of the risk that they become ‘unsaleable’. This attitude of selling at all costs has caused a collapse of meat prices in Europe.
As of today, with 2017 almost ended, the annual Spanish pig price (arithmetic, not weighted) mean is €1.26/kg LW.
Resist, resist and resist should be the motto for the first three months of 2018.
Our prices will still fall, with slight drops, but it will fall, until reaching a point in which all the pigs that can be slaughtered will be slaughtered. The bottom price cannot be very far away…
Spanish pig prices will still fall, but the great question is: until where? The answer is not an easy one, but we tend to think that…
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