Guillem Burset

The threat of ASF in Germany causes that nobody wants to keep greats stocks because of the risk that they become ‘unsaleable’. This attitude of selling at all costs has caused a collapse of meat prices in Europe.

As of today, with 2017 almost ended, the annual Spanish pig price (arithmetic, not weighted) mean is €1.26/kg LW.

Resist, resist and resist should be the motto for the first three months of 2018.

Our prices will still fall, with slight drops, but it will fall, until reaching a point in which all the pigs that can be slaughtered will be slaughtered. The bottom price cannot be very far away…

Spanish pig prices will still fall, but the great question is: until where? The answer is not an easy one, but we tend to think that…

September will witness a series of drops in price, like a cascade. The abattoirs demand incentives to increase the slaughterings. The limit of the fall will depend on the international context.

In Spain, August 15th will mark a turning point. The supply is recovering and the price will drop. In Europe there is an oversupply. The dollar is falling and the prices of American meat are more attractive.

Very probably, the Spanish price will remain above €1.40/kg liveweight until late July, supported by the weakness of the supply and helped by the weather.

In June, the Spanish price will keep on rising. The heart of the matter is how much more it will increase. If it is not possible to pass on the rise in the price of pigs to pork, all the upward trend will have to be at the expense of the abattoirs’ margin.

The Spanish market has taken a rest for Easter, but the rises will go on.

The prices rise in all Europe. In the last market session in March the German price has only grown by €0.07/kg carcass weight, and this conveys firmness and security all over the place.

Since late January until today, the price at Mercolleida has regained €0.066. We could say that the Spanish price is riding a powerful diesel engine that is propelling it upwards inexorably.

Always well-informed economic operators think that the average price in 2017 will not be lower than €1.20/kg, which would not be bad at all.

In 2016 the slaughterings will have been 16% higher that in 2014. Production has grown, and this growth has not been penalised yet.

Both USA and Canada still have an abundance of pigs and very low prices. This great amount of pork must be taken care of, and it will no doubt be at the expense of the European pork.

The USA and Canada persist in having rock bottom prices: €0.91/kg carcass, this is, 40% lower than the European prices.