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“Good production practices will be needed in the pig industry for the next 30 years, but they will not be enough. To remain competitive, the pork industry needs high standards of production at an affordable cost, so that consumers have access in a market that is becoming more diverse," said Professor Peter Davies, University of Minnesota - United States, last week at a webinar held by the IPVS - International Pig Veterinary Society, for hundreds of people from around the world. "We cannot predict the future, but we have to provide structure to think about scenarios," he said.
For Davies, the demand will increase 14% every decade until 2050. He highlighted that there will be an increase in consumption in developing countries and a drop in rich countries. In his vision, the main challenge of the production chain is to show itself sustainable for the consumer. "The economic activity is related to the consumption and not to the production, that's why it is necessary to look at the consumer to change the direction of the industry. If the projected growth is 14% per decade, we see that the consumption is growing less. Developed countries already reached the peak of consumption. In 2018, chicken has surpassed pork as the most consumed meat in the world and this incredibly competitive market (with chicken) should continue like this", mentioned the specialist.
According to Davies, in the next 30 years we should experience changes in our way of life that we could never imagine. "We will have 20,000 years of progress in the 21st century. The industries will be created from socio-environmental sustainability. The biggest challenge will be the consumer's perception of the link between livestock and climate change, which will affect the future of pig farming," he said. Moreover, new diets should compete with pig industry. "The consumer can choose foods based on plants, or alternative proteins, such as insects and algae. We will have a new diet in the next years", he pointed out.
And the changes are already taking place. "The millennials generation is 10% less likely to buy meat," the expert exemplified. The professor at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and chair of the Scientific Committee of IPVS2020, Roberto Guedes, highlighted the importance to be aware of the production costs, with an upward trend in the coming decades. "In the future we will have a production with higher costs, which may reduce demand because of the prices," he explained. Davies finished by emphasizing that commercial policies, events that cannot be predicted, such as the Covid-19 pandemic itself, and the disruption of new technologies could change the predicted scenarios.
IPVS2020 Proceedings
The IPVS2020 organizing committee made the proceedings available free of charge at the official website of the International Pig Veterinary Society (www.theipvs.com/links). It contains about 700 abstracts of the main research on the current pig industry developed by renowned scientists from all over the world. "In respect to the researchers who had chosen the IPVS2020 to submit their work, the proceedings are now officially ´published," said Fernanda Almeida, president of IPVS, emphasizing that these studies can contribute for the swine industry of the future.
The IPVS2022 Congress
The Covid-19 pandemic had disturbed, but not stopped the main source of new knowledge of the world swine industry. This was the balance of the webinar that brought together researchers, professionals, and swine producers around the world.
The 26th edition of the IPVS Congress, which would be held this year, was postponed to June 21-24, 2022, due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The meeting will be held at Riocentro, Rio de Janeiro.
At the opening of this week's webinar, Fernanda Almeida highlighted that resilience is the most appropriate word to represent this year's event. "Together with the main sponsors of the event, we decided to postpone the IPVS to 2022, a difficult but necessary decision to ensure the safety of all involved," she said.
November 13, 2020 - IPVS
