Articles - Economy

The exports to Asia have drained the stocks and have made all the European prices grow.

All points towards the rise in prices keeping a good pace in the first forthnight of June.

In the long term, Chinese producers will have to gain access to their own processors in order to break the information barrier which prevents precision investment in the production process.

The worst has already passed. We will have to see where our price can get to.

The bearish indicators still hang heavy over the industry and some have actually increased.

The first two or three weeks of April will be useful for absorbing the delayed pigs, and by the end of April the price will be able to rise, step by step, to more decent levels.

Will we see the predicted 2% increase in production this year that USDA is forecasting?

There is a total crisis situation in all Europe.

The headwinds to a 30% rise in carcass prices expected into the summer include a relative abundance of pork and all other meats coupled with much lower retail prices emerging in the meat case, ...

Spanish abattoirs are slaughtering at their maximum capacity, but nevertheless, several weeks will be needed (probably until late February) to reabsorb the accumulation of delayed pigs.

In order to dream of better prices we must find a bottom from where to rebound. We are very probably there, although Spanish market is, right now, heavier than the German one.

When global supplies of pork are large, as they are now, the name of the game for major production areas is growing net exports.

It has been years since we last saw such a risky price and situation.

The European market is saturated with pork since late summer. The WHO's report has been an ice-cold shower for the whole of the European pig sector.

The only prospect for growth in both the EU and the US is increasing net export sales. We are at an interesting cross-roads about which pork producing nation or group of nations will capture that opportunity.

We think that in October the price will still fall in Spain. A correction for the alignment with our neighbours is prevailing.

US pork industry is enjoying the lowest feed costs in quite some time. A significant number of new hogs to be raised in the U.S. is expected. Will the production arrive ahead of the new slaughter capacity?

The Spanish price can only fall, and it will inevitably drop week after week in September.

Pig farming in Ukraine is developing lively. The market deficit lowers the entry barriers that are almost absent.

We can assure Pope Francis that neither of the two big regional trade agreements will result in “unfettered capitalism” but the one between the US and EU could result in the US having more than two kinds of cheese, (currently yellow and white)

The heat has brought about a drop by more than 2 kg/carcass in July. This has not caused an increase in the price, as the Spanish price is the highest in Europe, and pork price is very low.

The harsh reality is that the outlook is bleak in all Europe.

COOL story can be summarized as “Be careful what you wish for, you might actually get it”.

Although the European exports have behaved well so far this year (the Russian embargo has been compensated), this is not enough: the weather has not favoured the BBQs in Germany and it is still too early for the summer pork consumption in the south European coasts.