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FAS/Canberra forecasts Australia’s pork production to increase by 1% in 2021 to 425,000 MT (CWE), from the 2020 result of 419,000 MT (CWE) due to reduced feed costs after the end of the drought, as well as strong pork prices.
Pork and baconer prices in Australia spiked from around mid-2019 to early 2020, achieving record levels, which was in large part due to high global prices caused by African Swine Fever (ASF). However, around March 2020, at the onset of COVID-19, industry sources reported a significant decrease in overall consumption attributed to lockdowns. This led to a build-up of pork meat stockpiles and as a consequence a significant decline in pork prices. As lockdowns broadly eased across the country in the second half of 2020 so too did pork and baconer prices, recovering to near peak levels. Pork consumption is expected to rise in 2021, based on a recovery in demand as food service and toursim activities are expected to recover.
The feed grain harvest during late 2020 and early 2021 was at or near record levels which resulted in over a 25% reduction in prices since late 2020. Despite this drop, feed grain prices still remain firm relative to historical levels which will temper further growth of pork production in 2021.
FAS/Canberra forecasts Australia’s pork imports to rise by 9% to 220,000 MT (CWE) in 2021, from a result of 201,000 MT (CWE) in 2020. The low import result in 2020 was in part due to a buildup in processed pork stock in Australia at the end of 2019 by wholesalers as a risk mitigant to potential global supply shortages caused by ASF. A further factor was due to the processing disruptions in the United States (the largest pork supplier) during 2020, evidenced by a significant drop in imports from April to August relative to the previous 5-year average (see graph above). There are no such disruptors expected to impact trade in 2021. The fresh pork market is supplied by local producers as biosecurity regulations prevent imports of fresh and chilled pork. Processed pork, which includes ham, bacon and small goods, is mainly supplied from frozen pork imports.
Pork exports are relatively low at around 8% of production and is forecast to remain steady at 35,000 MT (CWE). Australia typically exports pork to Singapore, Hong Kong, and New Zealand. These countries' imports from Australia in 2020 were largely not disrupted. On this basis, pork exports are anticipated to remain stable in 2021.
March 9, 2021/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
