0
Historically, domestic pork prices in China have been significantly higher than in the international market, creating pressure to import. However, in the first few months of this year, pork imports have decreased considerably. From January to May, China imported 427,000 tons of pork, a year-on-year decrease of 47.1%. The import value was US$830 million, a year-on-year decrease of 57.3%. Spain, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the Netherlands, and the United States together accounted for 81.0% of China's total imports. China imported a total of 201,000 tons from EU countries, accounting for 47.1%, a decrease of 3.8% from the same period last year.
Abundant supply and falling pork prices will drive import demand to a rapid decline to normal levels. Although pork imports are expected to fall back to the level before African swine fever, they will remain above one million tons.
From the production side, under the joint influence of market guidance and production capacity regulation, the national sow inventory has continued to decline since last year. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million, a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%. From January to May, designated pig slaughtering enterprises slaughtered 136.04 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Since February, the slaughter volume has been lower than the same period last year. In May, designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size slaughtered 26.66 million pigs, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%.
From the perspective of live weight, although it is higher than the same period last year, it is slightly lower than the previous month, indicating that the stock of medium and large pigs has decreased. The decline in the number of sows has led to an adaptive reduction in pig production, and the situation of oversupply of pigs has been basically reversed, and supply and demand have basically achieved balance. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from December last year to May this year, the number of newborn piglets in the country has decreased slightly year-on-year. Calculated based on a 6-month fattening cycle, in the next six months, the number of live pigs on the market will be lower than the same period last year. On the other hand, pork consumption will gradually strengthen in the second half of the year and reach a peak in the fourth quarter. In other words, the pork market in the second half of the year will show a trend of weak supply and strong demand, and pork prices are expected to maintain an overall upward trend.
July 2, 2024/ Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/ China.
http://www.moa.gov.cn
