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All meat trade forecast up in 2018

For the first time since 2012, trade in all meats (beef, pork, and broiler meat) is expected to rise. While pork and broiler meat will make modest gains of 1 and 2 percent respectively, beef growth will rise 5 percent.

Global production is forecast up over 2 percent in 2018 to 113. 5 million tons, primarily on expansion in China and to a lesser extent the United States and European Union (EU). Steady economic growth is boosting meat demand in most countries, while relatively low feed prices support producer margins. Large investments in China are resulting in growing hog numbers and will support 2 percent growth in pork production this year. EU production is also forecast up almost 2 percent, as producers have added sows in Poland, the Netherlands, and Spain. Hog prices remained favorable throughout 2017, incentivizing expansion. However, weak domestic demand and a challenging export outlook – owing to weaker demand from China and a stronger euro – are likely to pressure prices this year. Pork production is also growing in Russia as a ban on imports from Brazil has boosted demand for domestic pork.

Global exports are forecast 1 percent higher in 2018 driven by higher demand and lower pork prices. Mexico, Hong Kong, Philippines, and Taiwan are expected to lead growth, while demand is also up in South and Central America. While income growth will increase demand for pork in most markets, gains in domestic production will reduce demand from some buyers.