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The 2024/25 soybean season started dry, with soil moisture reserves in the red in the Pampas region. Between mid-October and mid-December, a significant improvement in moisture levels was consolidated across much of Argentina's productive area. However, the moderate La Niña phenomenon took center stage later, bringing dry and very hot air masses from the northeast. This week, the third heatwave passed through: temperatures exceeded 40°C in the central region and north of the country.
The lack of water severely limited growth and the number of nodes, while the heat became prominent at very sensitive stages for early-planted soybeans, forcing flower and pod abortion, as well as leaf and plant loss.
These days will be key for the Argentine soybean season. What happens with rainfall in the next 10 days will be crucial to set a base for the season and avoid further cuts; rainfall is especially needed in the center and north of Córdoba and Santa Fe, the center and southwest of Buenos Aires, Santiago del Estero, and, most importantly, in Chaco.
As for the second-crop soybeans, the situation remains very delicate. The heatwave has caused widespread damage in the Pampas region. Potential yields have dropped 30% to 70%, and there are many areas that will not be harvested.
In the face of this crop deterioration scenario, the national soybean projection is based on a production figure of 47.5 million tons (Mt), a drop of 2.5 Mt compared to the previous season (50 Mt).
Corn also declines: 2 Mt less than in January
The heatwave and lack of water also impacted corn. A 4% decrease in production is projected compared to January. With a yield of 7.05 tons/ha nationwide, the corn production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 46 Mt, which is 2 Mt below the estimate made in January.
February 13, 2025/ Rosario Stock Exchange/ Argentina.
www.bcr.com.ar
