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According to official data, as of January 1, the stock of corn in the hands of stockpilers, industrialists, and exporters reached 11.5 million tons (Mt), just below the 11.9 Mt from January last year and the second-highest volume on record. Thus, despite the fierce drought (and a drop in shipments in 2023), the commercial sector would have enough corn to finish the current season comfortably and kick-start the new year.
Corn production for 2023/24 is estimated at its highest level in history, at 59 Mt. Added to a carryover from the previous season, estimated at 4.3 Mt, this results in a total grain availability of 63.3 Mt; again, a record volume that exceeds the previous year's supply by 50%.
It can be assumed that the peak months for export logistics will occur between the second and third quarters of 2024, when Argentina will ship 11.5 and 15.6 Mt, respectively. In particular, based on trend yields, it is projected that exports in the third quarter of 2024, when late corn is shipped, may reach a record of 15.6 Mt, 60% higher than in the same period of the previous year.
This implies that in 2024 corn will bring in USD 8177 million in export revenue, 31% above the previous year.
Anticipated foreign sales for the 2023/24 season total 16.13 Mt, while exporters have purchased a total of 7.3 Mt of corn in the domestic market. Of this latter volume, only 1.6 Mt has a firm price, and 5.7 million tons have yet to be priced.
January 12, 2024/ Rosario Stock Exchange/ Argentina.
www.bcr.com.ar
