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With the 2023/24 corn harvest almost completed, data from the weekly report from the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries (SAGyP) indicate that planting of the first early corn lots for the 2024/25 season has started. Although there isn't official data from the governmental entity, the first sowing projections made by GEA-BCR in its latest monthly national estimate report indicate that the area to be planted would be 7.7 million hectares, a 21% drop compared to the previous season.
The lower planting intentions are mainly due to the losses caused by the stunting of corn in the current season, caused by the leafhopper disease, and the fear that the same situation may occur again during the new season. In addition, there is uncertainty regarding weather conditions.
Uncertainty regarding the new season's production is reflected in the early commercialization of corn in the domestic market. As reported this week by SAGyP, industry and export purchases of new corn as of August 28 amounted to only 992,300 tons, 62% behind purchases recorded at the same time last year. In fact, this volume represents just 19% of the 5.2 Mt average purchases for the same date over the last five years, and is the lowest volume recorded since 2015.
Since the leafhopper is threatening the realization of late sowings and the percentage of corn plots corresponding to early sowings is expected to increase, it is expected that there will be a relative drop in the volume of corn to be harvested around July and August, in favor of the grain to be harvested around March. As a result, there will be a certain relative variation in the prices of the new season's grain in the local forward market.
September 6, 2024/ Rosario Stock Exchange/ Argentina.
www.bcr.com.ar
