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Total Australian pig meat production is forecast to increase to 350 TMT in CY 2012, supported by a higher supply of slaughter stock and slightly increased carcass weights. Record high grain production and a recent slump in domestic feed grain prices are expected to boost pig meat production in CY 2012.
The recent sharp increase in feed grain supply and slump in feed prices, which account for nearly two thirds of the cost of production, follow a nearly decade long drought which created record low grain inventories and record high feed grain prices. Post expects the sharp increase in feed grain supply to extend beyond the CY 2012 period and should see Australian pig meat production continue to increase beyond the forecast period.
Total pork imports are forecast at 175,000 MT (CWE) in CY 2012, unchanged from the estimate for the previous year. Imports have grown significantly over the past decade, assisted by falling domestic production (due to drought) and a steadily rising Australian dollar value.
Post expects the Australian dollar to remain at historically high levels for the remainder of CY 2012 and this should maintain imports at similarly high levels. However, increased domestic production should constrain further growth in imports in the near future.
In 2011, the U.S. regained its position as the largest supplier of pig meat to Australia. A fall in the U.S. currency value relative to Australia (and to other pig meat suppliers) is believed to have improved the competativeness of pig meat imports from the US.
Tuesday March 13, 2012/ GAIN-USDA/ United States.
http://gain.fas.usda.gov/
