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Australian pork production is forecast to grow by 2% in 2025 to 490,000 MT (CWE), continuing the robust growth trend from the past four years. This anticipated increase is supported by easing feed grain prices and stable pork prices. However, growth in pork production will be moderated by the recent decline in consumer beef and lamb prices, which is expected to limit the boost in pork consumption associated with population growth. Pork consumption in Australia is projected to rise slightly in 2025 to 640,000 MT (CWE).
Australia’s pork imports are expected to remain stable at 200,000 MT (CWE) in 2025. Despite an anticipated increase in domestic pork production, import volumes are expected to remain unchanged as the rise in domestic production will meet the anticipated consumption needs. In recent years, the top four pork suppliers to Australia have accounted for nearly 95% of total imports. Historically, the United States supplied half or more of Australia's pork imports. However, from 2022, there was a notable shift toward sourcing pork from Denmark, the Netherlands, and, to a lesser extent, Ireland. For the first half of 2024, there has been a significant shift back towards the U.S. for pork imports, primarily driven by U.S. pork prices having shifted back to being lower than those of European sources.
Pork exports are expected to remain stable at 50,000 MT (CWE) in 2025. This stability is primarily due to the anticipated increase in domestic production, which is expected to be consumed primarily within the domestic market. The forecasted export volume represents only about 10% of Australia's total pork production. As such, fluctuations in export volumes have a minimal impact on Australian pork imports and domestic consumption. Most of Australia’s pork exports are to Asian countries and New Zealand. Singapore is consistently the most important destination.
September 11, 2024/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
