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For the first time since the 1997/98 season, Brazil displaces Argentina as the leading global exporter of soybean meal.
The record harvest favors the Brazilian crush and its soybean meal exports have grown by almost 7% so far this year. If current market conditions continue, shipment growth is expected to be even higher as the Brazilian soybean season progresses. Brazil's 2022/23 soybean crop is expected to exceed 163 Mt according to StoneX, up more than 30 Mt compared to the last season.
On the other hand, Argentina's historic drought has led to a 34% reduction in soybean meal shipments so far this year. However, the volume of imports allows us to partially cushion the strong drop in domestic crop production. In this sense, according to the latest estimate of the Guía Estratégica para el Agro (GEA - BCR), soybean production in 2022/23 will total 20 Mt, a decrease of more than 52% with respect to the previous season.
Soybean meal exports for Brazil and Argentina (January-July of each year). Source: @BRCmercados based on Indec, Anec, Nabs, and ComexStat data.
With regard to soybean oil, the volume of Argentine exports is also below last year's level, with a 12% reduction. Brazil, on the other hand, doubles the accumulated exports it had just two years ago. At that time, Argentine oil exports were more than 400% higher than Brazilian exports, while Argentina is currently 57% higher than Brazil.
August 4, 2023/ Rosario Stock Exchange/ Argentina.
https://www.bcr.com.ar/
