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Brazil to reach record pork production in 2021, says USDA

Pork production is expected to increase, reaching a record of nearly 4.3 million metric tons, reflecting continued strong exports to China, improved domestic demand, and stable feed costs next year.

Production not thwarted by COVID-19

Pork production is forecast to increase by nearly 5% in 2021 and set another record due to Brazilian producers responding to higher world demand caused by African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and other countries. Other factors influencing a higher production are higher yields, improved pork prices in both domestic and international markets, and stable feed costs (although higher).

Disruptions in production due to COVID-19 were minimal due to precautions taken by packers, including government mandated health protocols. Despite this, China delisted two Brazilian pork packers due to contamination of COVID-19 among employees.

Pork consumption to remain behind beef and chicken despite increase

Domestic pork consumption is expected to increase by 4% in 2021 and reach nearly 3.2 million metric tons (CWE) due to a rebound in economic activity and improved consumer purchasing power. Beef prices are projected to remain high, thus favoring pork consumption.

Pork consumption makes up about 15% of total animal protein consumption in Brazil, behind beef and chicken. The Brazilian pork industry has invested heavily in a domestic marketing campaign to increase consumption of fresh pork cuts, mostly in the foodservice sector. Roughly, 70% of pork consumption in Brazil is in the form of processed meats like ham and sausage, which are more expensive, and consequently, less competitive compared to chicken.

Pork exports to increase at a slower pace

Pork exports are expected to continue to increase in 2021, but at a slower pace. China is expected to continue demanding higher volumes of Brazilian pork during 2021 due to the impact of ASF. Currently, no major health or sanitary issues are foreseen that could prevent this increase in pork exports next year.

Asian markets, mostly due to strong purchases from China, are the main drivers for pork exports and account for about 80% of all Brazilian pork exports, followed by Latin American countries with 11%.

August 20, 2020/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/