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Exports of live hogs are revised upward at a 4% growth over 2020. Canada continues to contend with displaced market hogs in both Eastern and Western Canada and this will support exports of weanlings and market hogs as producers look to manage numbers through the first half of 2021. Additionally, more weanlings are expected to move from Canada to the United States through Spring 2021. This increase in the movement of weanlings is driven by reduced finishing barn space, due to backlogged hogs, coupled with the 4% growth in the 2020 pig crop, and demand from U.S. barns which have seen production declines related to porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS). Increased production from Canadian sows compared to recent years is hypothesized to be the result of reduced porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) in 2020. Beginning sow inventories are 1% higher than 2020. Sow inventories are currently at the level seen at the beginning of 2018, which was the largest inventory since 2009.
FAS/Ottawa now forecasts that 2021 feeder exports to the United States will grow 5% over 2020. Manitoba will continue as the main supplier of feeder hogs. While the current backlog of market-ready hogs will support exports of slaughter-ready animals in early 2021, FAS/Ottawa forecasts a slight decline from 2020 exports as additional processing capacity becomes available in Canada. Part of the decline will be related to an expected decrease in COVID-19 issues in plants, a modest increase in capacity utilization, as well as the announced expansion at Olymel Ange-Gardien. The expansion of this facility in Quebec will see processing increase by 10,000 head/week during the first phase.
With additional processing capacity and utilization as well as growth in the pig crop, FAS/Ottawa has revised 2021 slaughter upward 1% following a 4% growth in 2020. Although 2020 challenged processing capacity in Canada due to COVID-19 disruptions and mechanical issues, processors were able to slaughter a large volume of hogs. Increased demand from export markets as well as production capacity growth will continue to grow slaughter volumes. However, continued investments in production capacity may be curtailed by rising feed costs and the prices producers are receiving for hogs.
Pork production is still forecast to decline slightly from 2020 despite increased slaughter. This is owing to the fact that carcass weights are forecast to decrease 1% from 2020 without processing disruptions and backlogged hogs. Carcass weights will still remain above 2019 levels as Canada is currently contending with hog backlogs.
Pork exports grew 20% from 2019 to 2020 as Canada more than doubled exports to China which resulted in reduced export activity in many other top markets. A challenge for 2021 will be whether Canada can sustain export activity to China. This may be especially difficult as there are currently eight processing plants temporarily suspended from export to China due to COVID-19 cases. Industry is confident Canada will continue to see similar export volumes in 2021 by moving back into markets that saw a decline in 2020. Canada will look to increase exports to Japan as well as CPTPP countries (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership).
Pork imports are forecast to decline by 1% in 2021 following 13% growth in 2020. Strong pork prices, caused by processing disruptions, have reduced domestic demand overall. However, import volumes rose in order to backfill supply gaps created by increased export activity and consumer preference for specific cuts will sustain imports in 2021. The United States will remain the dominant source market for imports.
March 8, 2021/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
