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The Canadian swine herd is forecast to remain relatively stable in 2025. Contraction in Eastern Canada with previous years’ processing reductions will be offset by expansion in Western Canada.
Pork production is expected to be 1% higher in 2025 (2,110 thousand tons) on slightly higher slaughter numbers and heavier carcass weights. Strong sow productivity will lead to slightly larger pig crop numbers (29,600 thousand head), and increased slaughter capacity utilization in Western Canada will lead to a 1% increase in slaughter (21,350 thousand head). Carcass weights have trended higher in recent years, although processing backlogs and disruptions have been a factor in some prior years, good feed outlooks and production efficiency should support weights to maintain this trend in 2025.
Live exports to the United States will decrease an estimated 2% from 2024 with lowered market hog exports and slight growth in weaner/feeder exports. This is based on reductions in breeding stock in 2024 and anticipated stability into 2025, along with an expectation of improved slaughter capacity utilization in Western Canada.
Decreased Canadian consumption and increased export demand are anticipated to see pork imports decline and pork export volumes increase in 2024 with this trend expected to be maintained for 2025. Total pork imports in 2025 are expected to reach 240 thousand tons and exports 1,450 thousand tons. Asian currencies strengthening has supported increased export volumes into those regions. The United States will continue to remain the dominant export market for Canadian pork exports given geographic proximity and established supply chains. Geopolitical tensions could create significant shifts in pork trade for 2025.
September 25, 2024/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
