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Cereal harvest in the EU-27: 2023/24 outcomes and 2024/25 forecasts

The following is a summary of the data on the EU-27 cereal crop for 2023/24 and forecasts for 2024/25 made by Copa-Cogeca.

Comparison of cereal production in the EU-27 (2023 vs. 2024*) *Projections. Source: 333 based on Copa-Cogeca data.

Comparison of cereal production in the EU-27 (2023 vs. 2024*) *Projections. Source: 333 based on Copa-Cogeca data.

31 July 2024
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According to the latest report from Copa-Cogeca, the total area devoted to cereal production in the EU-27 is expected to decrease by 3.5% in 2024 compared to 2023, reaching 48,568.6 thousand hectares. This reduction in sown area is reflected in most major crops, with some notable exceptions. Overall, total cereal production in the EU-27 is forecast to decrease by 4.7%, from 269,899 thousand tons in 2023 to 257,319.6 thousand tons in 2024. This reduction is mainly due to decreases in sown area and yields in several major crops, with the exception of some notable increases in rye and oats.

Soft wheat

The area planted with soft wheat is expected to decrease by 5.0%, from 21,769 thousand hectares in 2023 to 20,685.9 thousand hectares in 2024. Production is also expected to decrease significantly by 6.4%, reaching 117,515.9 thousand tons, mainly due to a 1.5% reduction in yield.

Durum wheat

Durum wheat area is expected to experience a 7.5% decrease, falling to 1,981.1 thousand hectares in 2024. Despite a slight yield increase of 1.9%, total production is projected to fall by 5.7%, resulting in 6,586.3 thousand tons.

Barley

The barley area would remain relatively stable with a slight reduction of 0.4%, reaching 10,293.9 thousand hectares. However, yields would decrease considerably by 8.9%, resulting in a 9.3% drop in total production, reaching 43,046.7 thousand tons.

Corn

Corn is one of the few crops with an increase in planted area expected, with an increase of 1.3%, reaching 8,487.6 thousand hectares. However, the yield would decrease by 1.8%, resulting in a total production of 62,381.3 thousand tons, representing a slight decrease of 0.5%.

Rye and oats

Rye and oats would show increases in both sown area and production. Rye area would decrease by 7.2%, but a notable 10% increase in yield would lead to a 2.1% increase in production, reaching 7,554.5 thousand tons. Oats, on the other hand, would experience a 3.2% increase in area and a 17.5% increase in yield, resulting in a 21.2% increase in production to 7,098.1 thousand tons.

Others

Sorghum would show a slight expansion of 0.5% in area, but the 8.6% decrease in yield would lead to an 8.2% reduction in production. Other grains would also see a drastic decrease in planted area of 59.9%, resulting in a 59.6% drop in total production.

July 26, 2024/ 333 Staff with Copa-Cogeca data.

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