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China expected to import 20% less pork in 2022

China's pork production is expected to increase 5% and imports to decline.

The United States Department of Agriculture estimates China's hog production in 2022 to reach 665 million head, a 2% increase over 2021 driven by high beginning stocks and more efficient sows. Producers’ losses as well as government policies designed to stabilize the swine herd are expected to temper production and swine sector volatility in 2022.

Pork production is estimated to reach 50 million metric tons (MMT), a 5% increase over 2021, due to higher hog production and higher slaughter levels. Large producers are continuing to expand their market share of pork production.

Imports of pork products are expected to decline by 24% to 3.3 MMT, due to low domestic pork prices and an increased tariff rate along with a less optimistic economic outlook, and continued COVID-19 related restrictions and market disruptions. However, imports will remain historically high as the demand for imported pork products has increased. The five major pork suppliers are expected to remain Spain, Brazil, the United States, Denmark, and the Netherlands.

Chinese pork imports. Source: USDA, TDM and Post estimate — Chinese pork imports. Source: USDA, TDM and Post estimate

Imports of live breeding swine in 2022 are estimated lower at 20,000 head as producers clear through 2021 supply levels. Low hog and piglet prices that continued into 2022 are expected to lower demand for imported breeding swine.

March 4, 2022/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov

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