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China's oilseed consumption for marketing year (MY) 22/23 is forecast at 166.7 MMT, up from an estimated 163.5 MMT in MY 21/22. Oilseed imports are forecast at 104.1 MMT in MY 22/23 compared to an estimated 98.4 MMT the previous marketing year. Oilseed imports are expected to account for 62% of total domestic oilseed consumption in MY 22/23, a slight increase from MY 21/22. Combined, Brazil, the United States, Argentina, and Canada are expected to supply 96% of China’s oilseed imports in MY 22/23. China’s domestic oilseed production is forecast at 62.4 MMT in MY 22/23, on strong domestic prices and government incentives, up from an estimated 61 MMT in MY 21/22.
Greater sow and hog inventories following the ASF outbreak in 2018, combined with high poultry production capacity and steadily increasing ruminant and aquaculture production, are expected to boost feed demand in MY 22/23, pushing soybean imports to a record 100 MMT. Estimated soybean imports for MY 21/22 are reduced to 95 MMT from the previous USDA estimate on continuing weak demand in the swine and poultry sectors, lower than expected Brazilian production, and an announcement from China’s State Food and Strategic Reserve Administration on plans to auction state reserve soybeans.
Government efforts to reduce soybean meal inclusion rates are unlikely to substantially impact overall SBM use as prices for other feed grains remain high. The availability of other protein meals, particularly sunflower seed meal imported from Ukraine, is limited.
March 17, 2022/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
