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China's soybean production in marketing year (MY) 24/46 is forecast at 19.8 million metric tons (MMT), down slightly from MY 24/25. A slowing rate of growth in soybean demand is predicted as Chinese consumers shift from pork to more feed efficient protein sources like poultry and aquatic products.
Soybean imports for MY 25/26 are forecast at 106 MMT, up 2% year over year. In recent weeks Beijing has placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans and Canadian canola meal and oil. Estimated MY 24/25 import demand for most oilseeds and products will fall below the average of recent years owing to strong domestic oilseed crop production and continued economic headwinds facing the economy.
The Chinese government continues to support domestic oilseed production through policy signals and financial incentives as an effort to improve self-sufficiency. The Chinese government has intervened in the market by attempting to slow imports of soybeans during the months following the local harvest in order to prop up prices. It has also encouraged crushers to utilize higher-priced, uncompetitive domestic soybeans and purchased some domestic soybeans for storage to reduce the local surplus.
March 19, 2025/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
