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Total feed and residual use of grains in China's marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is forecast at 273.0 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 5.5 MMT, or only 2 percent over MY 2020/21. Overall feed production is projected to rise slightly during the remainder of 2021 and into 2022 as the poultry sector expands to meet growing demand and the swine herd contracts. China’s hog production is forecast to decline by 5 percent in 2022 though greater concentration is expected in large-scale operations using professional feed formulas.
Corn production for MY 2021/22 is forecast at 272 MMT as production losses caused by natural disasters in the North China Plain in July 2021 were not fully offset by better yields projected in Northeast China.
China’s marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn import forecast is 20 million metric tons (MMT) while its estimate for corn imports in MY 2020/21 is raised to 30 MMT. As the feed sector sources cheaper feed grain alternatives and growth in feed demand increases at a slower rate, demand for imported corn is expected to moderate.
The forecast for MY 2021/22 feed corn and residual use is 211 MMT, 15 MMT more than the MY 2020/21 estimate, as feed mills are expected to switch back to corn rations. Wheat prices are U.S. $30.75 (RMB 200) per metric ton lower than corn. If the price gap narrows further, feed mills are expected to increase corn use, as corn has been the preferred feed ingredient. MY 2020/21 corn feed and residual use is estimated at 196 MMT, only 3 MMT higher than last marketing year despite hog restocking. Industry experts project more than 40 MMT alternative grains were substituted for corn in feed rations.
September 30, 2021/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
