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Breeding sow inventory begins to recover in the second half of the year
Average hog prices remained low through 2023, resulting in losses. Producers began reducing sow inventories and, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), national sow inventories declined from nearly 42 million in January 2023 to just under 40 million in April 2024.
Piglet prices have been rising since early 2024, while live hog prices began to rise in late May 2024 and have now surpassed the estimated break-even point of CNY 15.2 per kilogram (USD 2.11/kg).
Figure 1. Average piglet price in China. Source: MARA
With the expectation of higher prices, hog producers began expanding production by restocking more sows. Industry sources report that some producers began increasing their sow numbers in April 2024 and official MARA data show that the sow inventory began to recover in May 2024, reaching 39.96 million.
According to sources consulted by USDA, many facilities are operating at only about 70% capacity and can adapt quickly to new demand or favorable prices. Given that feed prices will be lower year-over-year in 2024, and that piglet and pork prices could increase, producer profitability is expected to be better than last year.
Financial difficulties curb the expansion of sows by the end of 2024
Although hog operations have the potential to perform better during the remainder of 2024, sow inventory in the last two quarters of 2024 is expected to grow moderately. Hog producers operated at a loss for most of 2023 and during the early months of 2024. It is estimated that large-scale producers could expand hog production in the latter part of 2024, but the pace will be moderated by their financial situation. Industry sources indicate that smaller producers are more flexible, but those that suffered significant financial losses last year may be less willing or confident to re-enter the market immediately.
With the expectation of sow inventory growth in the latter half of 2024 that may last through early 2025, the average annual sow inventory in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 is expected to be higher than the previous year. As a result, 2025 hog production is forecast to be higher year-over-year.
In 2023 and early 2024, more small and medium-sized producers left the market due to low hog prices. The proportion of large-scale swine producers versus small and medium-sized producers continues to grow.
China maintains system to manage production
China continues to control its sow inventory in an effort to stabilize hog production. In February 2024, MARA announced that the government would reduce the target sow inventory by 2 million head, from 41 million to 39 million.
August 19, 2024/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov
