0
Average swine prices in 2024 were higher than in 2023, while production costs were lower, enabling higher profits across the swine breeding industry. Some swine producers started to expand swine production by restocking more sows. However, the expansion was slower than USDA estimated in the last annual report. The main reason for the moderated pace is companies’ financial situations. Swine producers operated at a loss for most of 2023 and during the beginning months of 2024. Some large-scale swine facilities have cancelled investment projects to add increased production capacity.
In early 2024, the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MARA) reduced the target for the breeding sow inventory from 41 million to 39 million. USDA estimates that the average sow inventory in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 will be lower than the last production cycle. The actual sow inventory fluctuates but is generally trending down. According to MARA, after four months of decline from January to April, national sow inventories started to rebound from under 40 million in May 2024 to over 40.7 million in December 2024, slower than estimated.
Piglets weaned per sow per year (PSY) continues to improve from a greater number of large-scale producers, which generally have higher PSY than small- and medium-sized producers. According to industry sources, in 2024, China’s PSY reached 21 heads, 0.6 head higher than 2023. USDA forecasts PSY will continue to improve in 2025, especially in large-scale producers with good management and animal health techniques. The higher PSY will enable moderate growth in swine production despite estimated lower sow inventories.
USDA revised the swine production estimate for 2024 upward (704,970 thousand head). The new estimate is still 1.7% lower than the 2023 swine production estimate (717,249 thousand head). The main reason for this revision is that production did not decline as much as forecasted, due to an average increase in PSY in 2024. In 2025, production is estimated to increase marginally to 705,000 thousand head.
March 7, 2025/ USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
