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Corn and soybeans: Projections for the 2022/2023 USDA marketing year - December 2022

Decreases are accentuated for corn production in Ukraine and the European Union; the latter would demand more imports of the grain to compensate for the drop in its domestic supply.

Source: USDA - WASDE. December 9, 2022. Figures in millions of tons

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on December 9:

Corn

World corn production is expected to reach 1161.9 million tons (Mt), a 4.5% decrease compared to the 2021/22 season (1216.9 Mt). This would be due to lower production in producing countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Ukraine.

United States production should be around 353.8 Mt, down 7.6% from the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China is expected to increase its harvest by 0.5% to 274 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 23.6% decrease with 54.2 Mt, while Ukraine, with 27.0 Mt, should see a decrease of 35.9%.

Production estimates for the South American crops were unchanged from the November report, with an 8.6% increase for Brazil (126 Mt) and a 6.8% increase for Argentina (55 Mt).

World exports of corn are expected to decrease by 10.3%, from 202.5 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 181.6 Mt in the new season. This would be explained by the decrease in exports from Ukraine (-35.1%), the European Union (-63.3%), and the United States (-16.0%).

South America's exportable supply remains unchanged from the November report, increasing by 5.6% for Brazil with 47 Mt, while Argentina's exports are expected to grow by 12.3% with 41 Mt.

China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 17.7% from the previous season (21.9 Mt). The European Union, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Peru should increase their imports by 8.7%, 5.4%, 3.3%, and 7.7%, respectively.

World ending stocks are expected to fall by 2.8% to 298.4 Mt. For India, the European Union, Canada, the United States, and China, stocks will fall by 33.9%, 26.2%, 20.4%, 8.7%, and 1.4%, respectively, while for Brazil, Ukraine, Egypt, and Iran, stocks will grow by 66.6%, 35.3%, 15.5%, and 13.7%, respectively.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase by 10.0% compared to the previous season, from 355.6 to 391.2 Mt.

The estimates for South American crops continue to indicate an increase of 19.7% for Brazil, which is expected to reach 152 Mt, while Argentina's production is expected to increase by 12.8% to 49.5 Mt.

Paraguay should increase its production by 138.1% with respect to the 2021/22 season (4.2 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt and returning to typical levels prior to the 2020/21 season.

In this new report, the U.S. crop is projected at 118.3 Mt, a 2.7% decrease compared to the 2021/22 season when it reached 121.5 Mt.

Export activity should be led by Brazil with 89.5 Mt, a 13.1% increase compared to the previous season (79.1 Mt), while the United States should reach an export volume of 55.7 Mt, which represents a 5.2% decrease compared to the last harvest (58.7 Mt).

Argentina is projected to export 7.7 Mt, which would represent an increase of 169.1% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.9 Mt).

China is expected to import 98 Mt, an increase of 7.0% compared to the 2021/22 season (91.6 Mt).

Final stocks of the oilseed are expected to increase by 7.5% globally, reaching 102.7 Mt. However, stocks for Iran, India, and China are expected to fall by 19.6%, 11.4%, 0.9%, and 0.9%, respectively, while for Paraguay, Canada, Ukraine, Brazil, and the European Union, stocks should increase by 339.8%, 52.1%, 41.7%, 33.2%, and 8.7%, respectively.