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Corn and soybean: Projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - February 2024

Compared to the January report, world corn production estimated saw no significant changes, while international trade figures forecast lower exports for Brazil and a decrease in imports from the European Union. As for soybeans, the forecast for Brazilian production was cut and export estimates increased, which would counterbalance the lower forecast for U.S. shipments.

Graph 1. Crop projections for the main world corn and soybean producers - 2023/24 season versus 2022/23 season. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on February 8:

Corn

World corn production for the 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1232.6 million tons (Mt), an increase of 6.6% compared to the 2022/23 season (1155.9 Mt).

United States production is expected to reach around 389.7 Mt, up 12.4% compared to the previous season (346.7 Mt), while China is expected to increase its harvest by 4.2%, reaching 288.8 Mt. The European Union would grow by 14.7% with 60.1 Mt, while Ukraine, with 30.5 Mt, would see an increase of 13.0%.

Brazilian production is forecast to reach 129 Mt, representing a 5.8% decrease compared to the previous season, while for Argentina the crop would reach 55 Mt, an increase of 57.1% compared to the previous season.

World corn exports are expected to increase by 11.0%, going from 181.0 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 200.8 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter with 53.3 Mt, which would represent an increase of 26.4% compared to the previous season.

The South American exportable supply should see a significant increase in Argentina. It is expected to increase by 70.8% with 41.0 Mt, while for Brazil, 52 Mt are estimated, which would represent a decrease of 7.1% compared to the previous season.

China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 22.9% compared to the previous season (18.7 Mt), while the European Union is expected to import 23.0 Mt, 0.6% less than in the 2022/23 season (23.2 Mt).

Final stocks are expected to increase by 7.3% globally, reaching 322.1 Mt. United States stocks would increase by 59.7%, while for Brazil they would decrease by 41.9%.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2023/24 season would increase 5.3% over the previous year, from 378.1 to 398.2 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops show a 3.7% decrease for Brazil, which would reach 156 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 100.0% with 50.0 Mt.

Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season (10.1 Mt), reaching a crop of 10.3 Mt.

In this new report, the US crop is estimated at 113.3 Mt, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season, when it reached 116.2 Mt.

Export activity would be led by Brazil with 100.0 Mt, growing 4.7% compared to the previous season (95.5 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 46.8 Mt, representing a decrease of 13.6% compared to the last harvest (54.2 Mt).

Argentina is projected to export 4.6 Mt, which would mean an increase of 9.9% compared to the 2022/23 season (4.2 Mt).

China is expected to import 102 Mt, a volume that is 1.1% higher than in the previous season.

Oilseed ending stocks are expected to increase 12.0% globally to 116.0 Mt, supported by increases in stocks in Argentina, the United States, and China.