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Corn and soybeans: USDA projections for the 2023/2024 season - November 2023

Compared to the October report, estimates for global corn production and exports were upgraded, with a larger U.S. crop expected. As for soybeans, a slight increase was projected for global production and a decrease in ending stocks.

Graph 1. Crop projections for the leading world corn and soybean producers - 2023/24 season versus 2022/23 season. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on November 9.

Corn

World corn production in the 2023/24 season is expected to reach 1220.8 million tons (Mt), an increase of 5.5% compared to the 2022/23 season (1157.1 Mt).

United States production is expected to reach 387.0 Mt, an increase of 11.1% compared to the previous season (348.4 Mt), while China's crop is expected to decrease by 0.1%, reaching 277.0 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a 14.4% increase with 59.8 Mt, and Ukraine, with 29.5 Mt, is expected to see an increase of 9.3%.

Brazil's production should reach 129 Mt, representing a 5.8% decrease compared to the previous season, Argentina's crop is forecast to reach 55 Mt, an increase of 61.8% compared to the previous season.

World corn exports are expected to increase by 10.3%, from 180.9 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 199.6 Mt in this new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter of the grain with 52.7 Mt, which would mean an increase of 24.9% over the previous season.

The South American exportable supply is expected to increase significantly in Argentina, by 78.3% in this new season with 41.0 Mt, while Brazil's is estimated at 55 Mt, which represents a 3.5% decrease compared to the previous season.

China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 22.9% compared to the previous season (18.7 Mt), while the European Union is expected to import 24.5 Mt, 4.3% more than in the 2022/23 season (23.5 Mt).

World ending stocks would increase by 5.3% to 315.0 Mt. United States stocks would increase by 58.3%, while Brazil and China's stocks would decrease by 22.4% and 2.0%, respectively.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is forecast to increase by 7.6% compared to the previous season, going from 372.2 to 400.4 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops show an increase of 3.2% for Brazil, which would reach 163 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 92.0% with 48.0 Mt.

Paraguay is expected to increase its production by 10.5% with respect to the 2022/23 season (9.1 Mt), reaching a crop of 10 Mt, and returning to the levels that were usual prior to the 2020/21 season.

In this new report, the US crop is estimated at 112.4 Mt, a decrease of 3.3% compared to the 2022/23 season, when it reached 116.2 Mt.

Exports would be led by Brazil with 97.5 Mt, growing by 2.1% compared to the previous season (95.5 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 47.8 Mt, a decrease of 11.9% compared to the last harvest (54.2 Mt).