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Corn and soybeans: November projections for the 2022/2023 season

The latest report on corn and soybean crop estimates showed slight variations from the October report. Highlights include a decrease in European Union harvests and an increase in ending stocks for Brazil and Ukraine.

Source: USDA - WASDE. November 9, 2022. Figures in millions of tonnes.

Here are highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on November 9:

Corn

World corn production is expected to reach 1168.4 million tons (Mt), a 4.0% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1217.5 Mt). This would be due to the decrease in producing countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Ukraine.

For the United States, production is forecast at around 353.8 Mt, down 7.6% compared to the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China will increase its harvest by 0.5%, reaching 274 Mt. The European Union will see a 22.8% decrease with 54.8 Mt, while Ukraine, with 31.5 Mt, will see a decrease of 25.2%.

Production estimates for the South American crops were unchanged with respect to the October report, with an 8.6% increase expected for Brazil (126 Mt) and a 6.8% increase for Argentina (55 Mt).

World exports are forecast to decrease by 9.5% from 201.8 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 182.7 Mt. This would be explained by the decrease in exports from Ukraine (-42.6%), the European Union (-55.0%), and the United States (-13.0%).

The Brazilian exportable supply remains unchanged with respect to the October report, increasing by 5.6% to 47 Mt, while Argentina's exports are expected to increase by 12.3% to 41 Mt.

China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, down 17.7% from the previous season (21.9 Mt). Vietnam, Iran, and Mexico will increase their imports by 8.7%, 4.7%, and 0.7%, respectively.

World ending stocks are forecast to decrease by 2.2% to 300.8 Mt. For India, the European Union, the United States, and China, stocks are expected to fall by 34.6%, 26.1%, 14.2%, and 1.4%, respectively, while for Ukraine and Brazil, stocks should grow by 115.9% and 66.6%, respectively.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase by 9.8% over the previous season, from 355.6 to 390.5 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops indicate an increase of 19.7% for Brazil, which is expected to reach 152 Mt, while Argentina is expected to increase by 12.8% with a production of 49.5 Mt.

In this new report, the U.S. crop is projected at 118.3 Mt, which would represent a 2.7% drop compared to the 2021/22 season, when it reached 121.5 Mt.

The export activity would be led by Brazil with an estimated 89.5 Mt, increasing by 12.8% compared to the previous season (79.4 Mt), while the United States should reach an export volume of 55.7 Mt, a figure that represents a 5.2% decrease compared to the last harvest (58.7 Mt).

Argentina is projected to export 7.2 Mt, which would mean an increase of 151.7% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.9 Mt).

China is expected to import 98 Mt, an increase of 7.0% compared to the 2021/22 season (91.6 Mt).

However, for the United States, India, Iran, and China, their stocks are expected to fall by 19.6%, 0.9%, 17.7%, and 0.9%, respectively, while for Brazil and Ukraine, stocks are expected to increase by 33.8% and 27.8%, respectively.