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Corn and soybeans: Projections for the 2023/2024 season USDA - January 2024

Compared to the December report, estimates for world corn production were improved, with higher crops forecast for the United States, China, and Brazil. Soybean projections for Brazil were cut again and forecasts for Argentina and the United States increased, keeping the global crop estimate for oilseeds unchanged.

Crop projections for the main world corn and soybean producers - 2023/24 season versus 2022/23 season. Prepared by 333 Latin America with data from FAS - USDA.

These are the highlights from the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on January 12.

Corn

World corn production for the 2023/24 season is projected to reach 1235.7 million tons (Mt), an increase of 6.9% compared to the 2022/23 season (1155.6 Mt).

United States production is expected to reach 389.7 Mt, up 12.4% compared to the previous season (346.7 Mt), while China would increase its harvest by 4.2%, reaching 288.8 Mt. The European Union should see a 14.7% increase with 60.1 Mt, while Ukraine, with 30.5 Mt, would see an increase of 13.0%.

For Brazil, production should reach 129 Mt, representing a 5.8% decrease compared to the previous season, while for Argentina the crop should reach 55 Mt, an increase of 61.8% compared to the previous season.

World corn exports are expected to increase by 11.1%, going from 180.8 Mt in the 2022/23 season to 200.9 Mt in the new season, with the United States being the second largest exporter of the grain with 53.3 Mt, which would represent an increase of 26.4% compared to the previous season.

The South American exportable supply would see a significant increase in Argentina, as it should increase by 78.3 % in this new season with 41.0 Mt, while Brazil is estimated at 54 Mt, which would represent a 5.3% decrease compared to the previous season.

China is expected to import 23 Mt of corn, an increase of 22.9% compared to the previous season (18.7 Mt), while the European Union is expected to import 23.5 Mt, 1.5% more than in the 2022/23 season (23.2 Mt).

Ending stocks are expected to increase by 8.2% worldwide, reaching 325.2 Mt. United States stocks would increase by 58.9%, while Brazil's would decrease by 32.1%.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2023/24 season is expected to increase 6.3% over the previous season, going from 375.4 to 399.0 Mt.

Estimates for South American crops show a 1.9% decrease for Brazil, which would reach 157 Mt, while Argentina is projected to increase by 100.0% with 50.0 Mt.

Paraguay's production should increase by 5.6% compared to the 2022/23 season (9.8 Mt), reaching a crop of 10.3 Mt.

In this new report, the US crop is estimated at 113.3 Mt, a decrease of 2.5% compared to the 2022/23 season, when it reached 116.2 Mt.

Export activity would be led by Brazil with 99.5 Mt, increasing 4.2% compared to the previous season (95.5 Mt), while the United States would reach an export volume of 47.8 Mt, a decrease of 11.9% compared to the last harvest (54.2 Mt).