0
Projections for corn
According to estimates presented by USDA on August 12, world corn production will reach 1,179.6 million tons (Mt) for the new season, down 3.2% compared to the 2021/22 season (1,218.8 Mt). This would be due to lower production in some of the leading producing countries, such as the United States, China, the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine.
In fact, for the United States, production will be around 364.7 Mt, a decrease of 5.0% with respect to the previous season (383.9 Mt). Likewise, a reduction of 0.6% is forecast for China, with a production volume reaching 271 Mt. Production in the European Union is expected to decrease by 15.5% with 60 Mt, while Russia and Ukraine will fall by 1.5% and 28.8%, with productions reaching 15 and 30 Mt respectively. However, significant growth is expected for South American crops. For Brazil, production will increase by 8.6%, reaching 126 Mt, while Argentina is forecast to increase by 3.8% with 55 Mt.
Regarding international trade, it is estimated that world grain exports will decrease by 7.4%, from 200.4 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 185.6 Mt in the new season, largely due to the decrease in exports from Ukraine (-49.0%), the European Union (-53.4%) and the United States (-3.1%). However, the South American exportable supply is expected to increase by 5.6% for Brazil with 47 Mt and by 5.1% for Argentina with 41 Mt. On the other hand, China is expected to demand 18 Mt of corn imports, which means a decrease of 21.7% despite the reduction of its domestic production, while Vietnam, the European Union, and Iran would increase their imports by 25%, 18.8% and 11.8% respectively.
Projections for soybeans
World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is projected to increase by 11.4% with respect to the previous season, going from 352.7 to 392.8 Mt. The Brazilian harvest will reach 149 Mt, an increase of 18.3% over the previous season (126 Mt). The U.S. crop is expected to grow 2.1%, from 120.7 Mt to 123.3 Mt, while Argentina is expected to grow 15.9% with a production of 51 Mt.
Export activity will be led by Brazil with 89 Mt, growing 11.3% compared to the previous cycle (80 Mt), while the United States will reach an export volume of 58.6 Mt, which represents a 0.2% decrease compared to the last harvest (58.8 Mt). China will import 98 Mt, growing 8.9% compared to the 2021/22 cycle.
Economics and Market Intelligence Department 333 Latin America with data from USDA/ United States.
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/
