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Corn and soybeans: USDA Projections for the 2022/2023 marketing year - October 2022

Compared to the September report, new cuts in U.S. production and export projections for corn and soybeans stand out, while for Latin America, increases are estimated for oilseeds in these two indicators.

Highlights of the latest grain and oilseed estimates reports released by the USDA on October 12:

Corn

World corn production is expected to reach 1168.7 million tons (Mt), a 4.0% drop compared to the 2021/22 season (1217.3 Mt). This would be due to lower production in countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Ukraine.
In the United States, production is estimated to reach 353 Mt, down 7.8% with respect to the previous season (382.9 Mt), while China is expected to see an increase in its harvest by 0.5%, reaching 274 Mt. The European Union is expected to see a decrease of 20.8% at 56.2 Mt, while Ukraine, with 31.5 Mt, would see a decrease of 25.2%.
Production estimates for the South American crops were unchanged with respect to the September report, with an 8.6% increase for Brazil (126 Mt) and a 6.8% increase for Argentina (55 Mt).
World corn exports are expected to decrease 9.8%, from 202.9 Mt in the 2021/22 season to 183.0 Mt in the new season. This would be explained by the decrease in exports from Ukraine (-42.6%), the European Union (-55.0%), and the United States (-13.0%).
South America's exportable supply remained unchanged from the September report, increasing by 5.6% for Brazil with 47 Mt and by 9.3% for Argentina with 41 Mt.
China is expected to import 18 Mt of corn, 18.2% lower than in the previous season (22 Mt). Vietnam, Iran, and Mexico are expected to increase their imports by 14.1%, 4.7%, and 1.1%, respectively.
World ending stocks of corn are expected to fall by 1.9% to 301.2 Mt. In India, the European Union, the United States, and China, stocks are expected to fall by 34.5%, 26.1%, 14.9%, and 1.4%, respectively.

Soybeans

World soybean production for the 2022/23 season is expected to increase by 9.9% compared to the previous season, from 355.7 to 391.0 Mt.
Estimates for South American crops indicate an increase of 19.7% for Brazil, which is expected to reach 152 Mt, while Argentina is expected to increase by 15.9% with a production of 51 Mt.
In this new report, the U.S. crop is projected to reach 117.4 Mt, a drop of 3.4% compared to the 2021/22 season when it reached 121.5 Mt.
Export activity will be led by Brazil with an estimated 89.5 Mt, a 12.5% increase compared to the previous season (79.6 Mt), while the United States is expected to reach an export volume of 55.7 Mt, which represents a 5.2% decrease compared to last year's crop (58.7 Mt).
Argentina is projected to export 7 Mt, which would mean an increase of 150% with respect to the 2021/22 season (2.8 Mt).
China is expected to import 98 Mt, an 8.9% increase compared to the 2021/22 season (90 Mt).
Ending soybean stocks are expected to increase 8.8% globally, reaching 100.5 Mt. However, in the United States, India, Iran, and China stocks are expected to decrease 27.0%, 0.9%, 17.7%, and 0.9% respectively.