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Turnaround in corn: from high expectations to a sharp deterioration in the last month.
The corn crop in Argentina for the 2024/25 season faces a complicated outlook due to the drought. With a harvestable area of 6.5 M ha, the estimated production is 48 million tons (Mt), 4 Mt less than the potential expected in a normal scenario (52 Mt). This yield represents a drop of 8.5% compared to the previous season.
The main factors are:
- Water deficit: Rainfall, which had improved in October, ceased in December, especially affecting early corn. Accumulated rainfall was very low in key regions such as Buenos Aires, which worsened the situation with heat stress, low humidity, and constant winds.
- Impact on planting: Uncertainty, including pests such as leafhoppers, reduced corn planting by 24%. Late plantings now represent 60% of the total but depend on future rains to sustain production.
- Regional yields: Córdoba leads with an average of 8.75 tons/ha, while Buenos Aires and Santa Fe have lower yields (7.23 tons/ha and 7.83 tons/ha, respectively).
Severe problems in grade 2 soybeans and arrested growth and regular lots in grade 1 soybeans.
Grade 2 soybeans, planted after wheat, face critical conditions, especially in northern Buenos Aires, where many plants have been lost. Grade 1 soybeans are also suffering from a lack of water, with compromised yields and pest damage.
Weather and water stress conditions in the last 30 days have ruled out high productivity scenarios, which prevents estimating a crop of 53-53.5 Mt. Currently, a planting estimate of 17.8 M ha is maintained.
January 16, 2025/ Rosario Stock Exchange/ Argentina.
www.bcr.com.ar
