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For the arable crop market, the report predicts a decline of the utilised arable area in the EU, from 107 million ha in 2017 to 104 million ha in 2030, limiting further expansion in production. The report gives particular attention to crops used for biofuels, a sector which is likely to be of major importance in the period to 2030 as the EU looks to reduce its fossil fuel consumption and meet its targets on reducing emissions. However, with the debate still ongoing over the effectiveness of biofuels in helping to meet these targets, the report predicts that the use of biofuels within the overall transport energy mix will remain stable at around 5.7% in 2030 (compared to 5.6% in 2017).
The report also predicts European cereal production will continue its growth, rising to 341 million tonnes by 2030 from the current level of around 301 mt. This growth is likely to be driven primarily by feed demand, good export opportunities and an increase in industrial uses of cereals. However it will be restricted by the limited potential for area expansion and slower yield growth in Europe compared to other regions of the world.
Demand for meat should remain stable in the EU and worldwide, according to the report, with EU meat production expected to reach 47.5 mt by 2030, compared to 47.3 mt in 2017. But the report warns livestock farmers might face lower prices in the next few years due to increased competition but also relatively low feed prices, even if prices are then expected to stabilise later in the outlook period due to ample supply covering growing global demand.
Pigmeat
Thanks to booming exports to China, pigmeat prices recovered in 2016. Pigmeat production took advantage of this short-term opportunity but is expected to expand only marginally by 2030. This is because of stabilising EU consumption and competition on the world market despite favourable feed prices.
EU pigmeat production is expected to decrease by less than 1% in the EU15 while increasing in the EU13 by almost 235.000 t (7%) by 2030.
World import demand for pigmeat is expected to grow but more slowly than in the previous decade (+560.000 t), reaching 8,4 million t by 2030, mostly from existing EU trade partners in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The level of Chinese demand after the restructuring of its domestic sector is a factor of uncertainty that can heavily impact the world pigmeat market.
EU exports are expected to reach almost 2.8 million t at the end of the outlook period, representing around 34% of world pigmeat trade (compared to 37% in 2016). This also reflects the EU pork market’s increasing dependency on exports, which are expected to rise from less than 9% to 12% of total production by 2030.
Monday December 18, 2017/ DG Agriculture/ European Union.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/news
