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Total utilised agricultural area is projected to slightly decline over the outlook period, to 160.5 million hectares in 2031. Most of the decline in agricultural land will come from crops areas, and cereals in particular. In contrast, conversion from conventional to organic farming is expected to remain strong in 2021-31.
The 2.8% decline of EU cereal area, compared to 2021, combined with a decrease in yield, could translate into a reduction of cereal production. Production is expected to be down to 276 million tonnes in 2031 (-2.5% compared to 2021). In terms of consumption, the EU use is projected to decrease by 2.7%, reaching 254.8 million tonnes, driven by a decline in feed use. As for trade, the EU is expected to remain competitive but will face strong competition leading to a reduction in market shares.
Regarding protein crops, the dedicated area is projected to increase by 19% over the outlook period. As these crops continue to attract interest thanks to their agronomic benefits and market prospects, yields are projected to increase by 14% by 2031. Production is expected to grow significantly by 33% to 5.2 million tonnes in 2031. EU consumption will also grow in 2021-31, to reach 5.6 million tonnes in 2031, up 14% compared to 2021.
As for oilseeds, the area is expected to be similar to current levels by 2031, at 10.7 million ha. It will peak in the middle of the outlook period but start to decline due to lower demand for feed and oils.
December 9, 2021/ European Commission/ European Union.
https://ec.europa.eu/
