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EU pig meat consumption will drop over the next ten years

Meat markets will be influenced by sustainability, societal and health concerns over the coming decade, according to the EU agricultural outlook 2021-31.

Sustainability, with its environmental, economic and societal objectives, is expected to play an increasingly prominent role in EU meat markets. Modernisation, innovative technologies and changes in farming practices will lead to more efficient and more environmentally-friendly meat production. Still, the investments required to do so remain a challenge. Consumer habits will also be driven by health considerations as well as convenience. Overall, EU meat per capita consumption is expected to drop from 69.8kg in 2018 to 67kg by 2031.

Uncertainties, especially those related to the African Swine Fever, remain for the pigmeat sector. China should have fully recovered by 2026, having a massive impact on EU pigmeat exports. In addition, shifts in EU consumer preferences in terms of health, environment and societal concerns should negatively impact EU pigmeat consumption, projected to decrease by 0.5% per year, from 32.5 kg in 2021 to 31 kg per capita in 2031. EU production is also expected to decline by 0.8% per year over the outlook period, to reach 21.5 million tonnes in 2031.

EU gross beef production is expected to fall by 8% over the outlook period and consumption will continue its downward trend. For the poultry sector, EU consumption growth could slow down to 0.6% growth in 2021-2031. EU production is expected to continue to increase by 0.4% per year. EU sheep meat production is expected to increase slightly by 0.3% per year in 2021-2031. EU per capita consumption of sheep meat is expected to grow slightly by 2031 and reach 1.4 kg per capita thanks to the diversification of the meat diet and changing consumption patterns.