EU pig meat production and exports expected to decline through 2035

Stricter implementation of environmental laws in certain EU countries and declining export opportunities along with societal criticism and African swine fever (ASF) are expected to reduce EU pigmeat production. An expected decline in the sow herd will likely be offset in part by increased carcass weights. EU pigmeat production is projected to fall by 0.9 % per year between now and 2035 (or almost 2 million t compared with 2021-2023). EU per capita consumption is projected to decrease by 0.7 % per year, falling to 29.7 kg in 2035 (a drop of -7 % compared with the already-low levels recorded in 2021-2023.

Production capacity in China, the Philippines, and Vietnam is expected to recover sooner than expected, leading to lower import demand, despite the expected continuation of ASF outbreaks. In contrast, there may be increased demand for imports in the US, Australia, sub-Saharan Africa, some other regions in Asia, and neighboring European countries. Over the coming decade, the UK could become the largest single export destination for EU pigmeat. The combined effect of these developments means that although EU exports increased in the previous decade, exports are projected to decrease in the coming years and then stabilize at a slightly lower level by 2035 (- 620 000 t between 2021-2023 and 2035). The EU will also need to strengthen and diversify its pigmeat export portfolio in the coming years. Pigmeat imports to the EU are expected to remain low and stable, mainly because the UK is focusing on its domestic market, while significant increases in imports from other countries are not likely.

After the price spike in 2022-2023, EU pigmeat prices are expected to remain at a higher level following an expected decline in production costs in the short term. However, it is uncertain to which level they will fall back. It is expected that prices could stay higher in the medium term than the levels seen in the past due to increased costs and tighter EU supply, reaching EUR 2 180/t by 2035.

December 7, 2023/ European Commission/ European Union.
https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu