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Last month, the French Pork Institute (IFIP) made forecasts on pork production, pork prices, and feed prices. The assumptions were based on structural market factors (inventory, production trends, consumption trends) and cyclical factors (the COVID-19 crisis, presence of ASF in Germany, evolution of demand from Asian markets).
In 2021, European production should remain stable but situations will vary by country: growth in Spain and Denmark, regression in Germany and the Netherlands. International demand is expected to increase, especially from East Asian markets. European exports to third markets are expected to increase by 14.5% in 2021 compared to 2020, with a strong boost in the first half of the year given the worsening sanitary conditions on Chinese farms, as well as in the Philippines, Vietnam, etc. According to these factors, pork prices should gradually increase in comparison to 2020, especially from the second half of the year onwards. In France, the price of SE class pork (> 55% lean) would be €1.63 / kg on average per year, a higher level than in 2020. The increase should be significant in the third and fourth quarters (+17% and +14% in 21/20, respectively).
The price forecast for pork in France remains dependent on the control of the COVID-19 epidemic in Europe and the world as well as the ASF situation in Germany. The hypothesis is that ASF will not spread beyond the currently infected area in eastern Germany.
May 10, 2021/ Nota de Coyuntura - IFIP/ France.
