0
Total pig meat exports in the world are forecast to total 11.3 million tonnes in 2022, down 11.3% from last year, according to the FAO's Meat Market Review - Emerging trends and outlook 2022. This reduction in total exports is driven principally by a nearly 45% anticipated decline in sales by China, limiting overall pig meat imports to 2.7 million tonnes, accounting for around 24% of global trade, although much lower than the 45% level in 2020. This year’s decline is principally due to lower imports in the first half of the year amid abundant domestic production and low internal prices. However, pig meat imports could surge in the latter part of the year, as domestic prices are seen rising from April. Despite rising prices, producers appear to have lowered replenishment of sow herds due to unfavorable market conditions also leading to higher import needs in the months ahead. These lower purchases by China could have a cascading effect on four of the top pig meat exporters, namely the European Union, the United States, Canada, and Brazil, resulting in lower shipments, despite efforts to increase exports to other markets, mainly in Asia.
In Vietnam, a production increase for the third consecutive year is likely to result in a decline in imports. Weak internal demand may lead to pig meat import contractions in Canada and Chile.
Among major importers, the United States, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the Philippines are anticipated to raise pig meat purchases. Rising pig meat consumption is driving the United States and Mexico to import more in 2022. Japan and the Republic of Korea have seen robust import increases in the first part of the year, respectively, by 9% and 30.5% year-to-date up to September, with expectations for purchases to remain firm for the whole year. In June 2022, the Republic of Korea also sought to stabilize local prices by lifting tariffs on pig meat and, in early September, announced the acceptance of the principle of ‘regionalisation’ for animal diseases such as ASF, allowing countries to resume shipments from areas free from the ASF virus. In the United Kingdom, imports are expected to rise due to an anticipated production fall to meet internal demand, although this import expansion is likely to be constrained by the possible decline in consumer demand amid the rising cost of living. In the Philippines, reduced domestic output and the extension of lower pig meat import tariffs would support purchase increases.
November 29, 2022/ FAO. 2022. Meat Market Review: Emerging trends and outlook. 2022. Rome.
