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Global production of coarse grains in 2020 is forecast at a record high level of 1,513 million tonnes, a significant increase of 65 million tonnes (4.5 percent) from the previous year. Most of the expected growth is associated with a foreseen upturn in maize production (forecast at an all-time high of 1,207 million tonnes).
International coarse grain prices started the 2019/20 (July/June) season at a 5-year high and are likely to end it at a 15-year low. In the USA, maize prices were hit by COVID-19 movement restrictions, falling to their lowest levels since 2006. Uncertainty regarding the impact on feed use of maize with the closure of several slaughterhouses in response to COVID-19 outbreaks also exacerbated the drop in maize prices. In May 2020, the benchmark US maize prices (yellow, No. 2, f.o.b.) averaged USD 144.1 per tonne, down by 16.3 percent from May 2019. Soymeal prices in the U.S. also saw a pronounced contraction, due to these shutdowns.
World feed use of coarse grains is forecast to increase to 844 million tonnes in 2020/21, up 3.1% from the 2019/20 level. Maize feed use accounts for the majority of this expected annual growth. China, the world’s largest user of maize for feed, is expected to increase its maize feed utilization by 5 million tonnes (3.1 percent) in 2020/21, following two years of decreases due to the devastating impact of African Swine Fever (ASF). In the USA, maize feed use is expected to increase nearly 9 million tonnes (6.1%) in 2020/21, after slaughterhouses shutdowns temporary slowed meat production.
Global soybean production is pegged at 337.9 million tonnes, down markedly from last season’s all-time high. In the northern hemisphere, production levels are set to fall across all major producing nations except China, where supportive policy measures continued to incentivize area expansion. The crop in the USA is reported at 96.8 million tonnes, marking the lowest level in the past six years due to unfavourable weather conditions. India, Canada and Ukraine, also saw output drop. Brazil is seen harvesting a record crop, as an increase in harvested area is expected to offset subdued yield levels. By contrast, production in Argentina is anticipated to decline, because of contractions in both area and yields.
After rising three years in a row, global meals/cakes production in 2019/20 is expected to contract markedly to 348.9 million tonnes (expressed in product weight), down around 6% year-on-year. Global meal/cake supplies are forecast to decrease by only 3.7%, due to large carry-in stocks.
August 6, 2020/ FAO/ United Nations.
http://www.fao.org/
