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Global pig meat output is forecast at 105.3 million tonnes in 2020 (-4.0% from 2019), primarily due to ASF-induced production contractions in China, the Philippines and Viet Nam. Output in the European Union may also decline. After a 21% fall in production in 2019, China's pig meat production is forecast to contract by 4% in 2020, to 38.9 million t. The relatively smaller contraction reflects a sharper recovery of the country's pig population. Significantly large investments have been made in recent years to advance the pig genetics base, helping a faster recovery. ASF is also mainly behind the expected output contractions in the Philippines and Viet Nam. Reflecting the reported cases of ASF in some wild boars and export restrictions, especially to Asian markets, the European Union's pig meat output is forecast to fall by 0.4%; though moderated by an increase in carcass weight.
By contrast, output increases are forecast in the United States of America, the Russian Federation, Brazil, Canada and Mexico. In the United States of America, a rise in pig inventory is behind the anticipated output expansion of 1.9%, resulting in total production of 12.8 million t. However, the industry is negatively affected by the reduced utilization of packer capacity and lower labour force participation. In the Russian Federation, the output is likely to grow by 6% to 4.2 million t, stimulated by investments in large-scale farms and vibrant global demand. Brazil is benefitting from the continued government support, while in Canada, increased slaughter numbers and carcass weight, along with an increase in global import demand, are driving an output expansion.
Total pig meat exports in the world are forecast to reach 11.1 million t in 2020, up 16% year-on-year. China is forecast to account for 47% of global pig meat imports, growing by almost 80% year-on-year, to over 5 million t. Notable growth in imports is also forecast in Viet Nam, reflecting losses due to ASF. By contrast, the Republic of Korea and Japan, among others, are likely to purchase less, because of reduced restaurant sales and high retail prices.
Regarding exports, the United States of America, Brazil, the European Union, but also Canada, Mexico, the Russian Federation and Chile are benefitting from this year's surge in Asian demand. Up to October, the United States of America has almost tripled deliveries to China from 303,000 to 775,000 t. Although sales to some trading partners may fall, Brazil's deliveries to Asia, mainly China and Viet Nam, have been rising, sustaining the country's overall exports. Despite the ban imposed on German pig meat from several countries, the European Union is expected to conclude the year with an increase in sales of 6%. Ample export availabilities, and government support through the Emergency Support Fund are assisting Canada to raise exports. Mexico sold eight times more pig meat to China in the first nine months of this year compared with the same period last year. In the Russian Federation, market access gained in Viet Nam at the end of 2019 is helping the country to sustain export expansions. From January to October this year, 31% of pig meat exports went to Viet Nam. Chile's export expansion is principally due to the opening of the Chinese market.
December 2020/ FAO.
http://www.fao.org/
